A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
