A mere two months prior when the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
